![]() ![]() While that follows the pattern of a president’s party losing, the UC San Diego political scientist Gary Jacobson explained in a 2019 paper that the cycle’s results were extraordinary. Take the 2018 midterms, in which Democrats whipped Republicans. The president’s supporters are discouraged and stay home, while those who dislike him are more likely to turn out, part of the process known as negative or affective partisanship: Americans are not only more polarized than ever before, but they’re more motivated by animosity toward the other party than affection for their own.īut Trump often scrambles expectations. There’s also a difference in the composition of the electorate between presidential and midterm years. That’s almost always how it goes: A candidate is well liked and wins the election (how else would he win?), but familiarity and presidency breed contempt. Of course, there’s plenty of time for Biden to lose favor with voters between now and November 2022. The economy is struggling, but it’s expected to rebound as the COVID-19 pandemic retreats, and the massive stimulus package currently under consideration in Congress should help too. He’s more popular now than Trump ever was. Right now, both indicators are tentatively positive for President Joe Biden. The extent of the losses by members of the president’s party in midterm elections tends to track his approval rating as well as the state of the economy. The question is whether Trump will help, hinder, or possibly even prevent that from happening. Democrats will enter the midterms with only a minuscule edge in the House, so even a small loss of seats would give Republicans control. ![]() Only three times in the past century-1934, 1998, and 2002-has the rule failed to hold. Bush a presumed squish who had a chilly relationship with the conference.) The 2024 GOP presidential primary may be a wild affair, but Trump’s continued dominance poses a more immediate quandary for the Republican Party in 2022.ĭecades of experience have taught that the sitting president’s party loses seats in midterm elections. Bush each served two terms among one-termers, Gerald Ford was a known squish and George H. ![]() Hero worship is not new to CPAC-before there was Trump, there was Ronald Reagan-but no former president has ever dominated the conference in this way, because he is still a concern for 2024. Trump ain’t goin’ anywhere,” Senator Ted Cruz told attendees. “Let me tell you this right now: Donald J. It’s why even ambitious potential rivals for power paid effusive homage. It’s why Trump merchandise flew off vendor tables, why Trump gave the keynote, and why Trump won the presidential straw poll. It’s why an artist brought a literal golden idol of the former president and attendees eagerly posed with it. (Why bring the base to Washington when you can take Washington to the base?) Oh, sure, COVID-19 restrictions played a part, but CPAC could have chosen any number of places to relocate, and it chose the former president’s home state, hoping he’d attend-as he did. It’s why the conference moved from its traditional home outside Washington, D.C., to Florida. So did the organizers, the attendees, and the politicians who attended. The 2021 Conservative Political Action Conference proved that it’s still Donald Trump’s Republican Party, but then you knew that.
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